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Open Economy Macroeconomics

Question
CBSEENEC12012893

Briefly describe the causes for disequilibrium in the BOP. Suggest corrective measures.

Solution

We have seen that overall account of BOP is always in equilibrium. This balance or equilibrium is only in accounting sense because deficit or surplus is restored with the help of capital account. Disequilibrium in BOP means there is either deficit or surplus in BOP. In fact, when we talk of disequilibrium, it refers to current account of balance of payment. If outflow of foreign, exchange is more than inflow of foreign exchange, deficit in balance of payment occurs reflecting disequilibrium in BOP.
(a) Causes of disequilibrium in BOP:
There are several factors which cause disequilibrium in the BOP indicating either surplus or deficit. Such causes for disequilibrium in BOP are listed below.
1.    Economic Factors. (i) Imbalance between exports and imports. (It is main cause of disequilibrium in BOP). (ii) Large scale development expenditure which cause large imports. (iii) High domestic prices which lead to imports. (iv) Cyclical fluctuations (like recession or depression) in general business activity. (v) New sources of supply and new substitutes.
2.    Political Factors. Experience shows that political instability and disturbances cause large capital outflows and hinder inflows of foreign capital.
3.    Social Factors. (i) Changes in fashions, tastes and preferences of the people bring disequilibrium in BOP by influencing imports and exports, (ii) High population growth in poor countries adversely affect their BOP because it increases the needs of the countries for imports and decrease their capacity to export.
(b) Measures to correct disequilibrium in BOP:
Sustained or prolonged deficit has to be settled by short term loans or depletion of official reserves of foreign exchange and gold. Following measures are recommended to avoid disequilibrium in BOP.
(i) Export promotion. Exports should be encouraged by granting various bounties to manufacturers and exporters. At the same time, imports should be discouraged by undertaking import substitution and imposing reasonable tariffs.
(ii)    Devaluation of domestic currency. It means fall in the external (exchange) value of domestic currency in terms of a unit of foreign exchange which makes domestic goods cheaper for the foreigners. Devaluation is done by a government order when a country has adopted a fixed exchange rate system. Care should be taken that devaluation should not cause rise in internal price level.
(iii)    Exchange control. Government should control foreign exchange by ordering all exporters to surrender their foreign exchange to the Central Bank and then ration out among licensed importers.
(iv)    Depreciation. Like devaluation, depreciation leads to fall in external purchasing power of home currency. Depreciation occurs in a free market system wherein demand for foreign exchange far exceeds the supply of foreign exchange in foreign exchange market of a country. (Mind, devaluation is done in fixed exchange rate system.)
(v)    Reducing inflation. Inflation (continuous rise in prices) discourages exports and encourages imports. Therefore, government should check inflation and lower the prices in the country,
(vi)    Import Restrictions and Import Substitution are other measures of correcting disequilibrium.