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Probability

Question
CBSEENMA12035749

A speaks truth in 60% of the cases, while B in 90% of the cases. In what percent of cases are they likely to contradict each other in stating the same fact? In the cases of contradiction do you think, the statement of B will carry more weight as he speaks truth in more number of cases than A?

Solution

Let the probability that A and B speak truth be P(A) and P(B) respectively.
Therefore,  straight P left parenthesis straight A right parenthesis space equals space 60 over 100 space equals 3 over 5 space space and space straight P left parenthesis straight B right parenthesis space equals space 90 over 100 space equals space 9 over 10
A and B can contradict in stating a fact when one is speaking the truth and other is not speaking the truth.
Case 1:  A is speaking the truth and B is not speaking the truth.
Required space Probability space equals space straight P left parenthesis straight A right parenthesis space cross times space open parentheses 1 minus straight P left parenthesis straight B right parenthesis close parentheses space equals 3 over 5 cross times open parentheses 1 minus 9 over 10 close parentheses space equals 3 over 50.
Case 2: A is not speaking the truth and B is speaking the truth. 
Required Probability  = open parentheses 1 minus straight P left parenthesis straight A right parenthesis close parentheses space cross times space straight P left parenthesis straight B right parenthesis space equals space open parentheses 1 minus 3 over 5 close parentheses cross times 9 over 10 equals 9 over 25.
therefore space Percentage of cases in which they are likely to contradict in stating the same fact =
open parentheses 3 over 50 plus 9 over 25 close parentheses cross times 100 percent sign space space equals space open parentheses fraction numerator 3 plus 18 over denominator 50 end fraction close parentheses cross times 100 percent sign space equals 42 percent sign
From case 1, it is clear that is not necessary that the statement of B will carry more weight as he speaks truth in more number of cases than A.

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