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Probability

Question
CBSEENMA12033768

In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the bolts. Of their outputs, 5, 4 and 2 percent are respectively defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it is manufactured by the machine B?

Solution
Let E1 , E2, E3 be the events that the bolt is produced by machines A, B, C respectively.
               therefore space space space space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space equals space 25 over 100 comma space space space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space equals space 35 over 100 comma space space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 3 right parenthesis space equals space 40 over 100
Let D be the event of the bolt being defective.
therefore space space straight P left parenthesis straight D divided by straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis equals space 5 over 100 comma space space straight P left parenthesis straight D comma space straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space equals space 4 over 100 comma space space straight P left parenthesis straight D divided by straight E subscript 3 right parenthesis space equals space 2 over 100
straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 divided by straight D right parenthesis space equals space fraction numerator straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight D divided by straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis over denominator straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight D divided by straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space plus space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight D divided by straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space plus space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 3 right parenthesis thin space space straight P left parenthesis straight D divided by straight E subscript 3 right parenthesis end fraction
space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space equals space fraction numerator begin display style 35 over 100 end style cross times begin display style 4 over 100 end style over denominator open parentheses begin display style 25 over 100 end style close parentheses space open parentheses begin display style 5 over 100 end style close parentheses space plus space open parentheses begin display style 35 over 100 end style close parentheses space open parentheses begin display style 4 over 100 end style close parentheses space plus space open parentheses begin display style 40 over 100 end style close parentheses space open parentheses begin display style 2 over 100 end style close parentheses end fraction
space space space space space space space space space space space space space space equals space fraction numerator 140 over denominator 125 plus 140 plus 80 end fraction space equals 140 over 345 equals space 28 over 69

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