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Probability

Question
CBSEENMA12033759

A factory has two machines A and B. Past record shows that machine A produced 60% of the items of output and machine B produced 40% of the items. Further, 2% of the items produced by machine A and 1% produced by machine B were defective. All the items are put into one stockpile and then one item is chosen at random from this and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was produced by machine B?

Solution
Let E1, E2 be the events denoting the production from two machines A, B respectively.
                 therefore space space space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space equals space 60 over 100 comma space space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space equals space 40 over 100
Let E be the event that item is defective.
therefore space space space straight P left parenthesis straight E space vertical line thin space straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space equals space 2 over 100 comma space space space space straight P left parenthesis straight E divided by straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space equals space 1 over 100
therefore space space space space space space space space space space space space space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 space vertical line space straight E right parenthesis space equals space fraction numerator straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space straight P left parenthesis straight E vertical line straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis over denominator straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight E space vertical line space straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space plus space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight E vertical line straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis end fraction
space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space space equals space fraction numerator begin display style 40 over 100 end style cross times begin display style 1 over 100 end style over denominator begin display style 40 over 100 end style cross times begin display style 2 over 100 end style plus begin display style 40 over 100 end style cross times begin display style 1 over 100 end style end fraction equals space fraction numerator 40 over denominator 120 plus 40 end fraction equals space 40 over 160 equals 1 fourth

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