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Probability

Question
CBSEENMA12033756

Suppose that 5% of men and 0.25% of women have grey hair. A grey haired person is selected at random. What is the probability of this person being male? Assume that there are equal number of males and females.

Solution

Let E1, E2, E be the events
E1 : ‘selected person is a male’
E2 : ‘selected person is a female’,
E : ‘selected person is grey haired’
therefore  straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space equals space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space equals space 1 half.
and                straight P left parenthesis straight E space vertical line space straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space equals space 5 over 100 space equals 1 over 20 comma space space space space straight P left parenthesis straight E space vertical line space straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space equals fraction numerator 0.25 over denominator 100 end fraction equals 1 over 400.
Required probaility = straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 space vertical line space straight E right parenthesis
                              fraction numerator equals space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight E space vertical line space straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis over denominator straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight E space vertical line space straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space plus space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight E space vertical line thin space straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis end fraction

equals space fraction numerator begin display style 1 half end style cross times begin display style 1 over 20 end style over denominator begin display style 1 half end style cross times begin display style 1 over 20 end style plus begin display style 1 half end style cross times begin display style 1 over 400 end style end fraction space equals fraction numerator begin display style 1 over 20 end style over denominator begin display style 1 over 20 end style plus begin display style 1 over 400 end style end fraction space equals fraction numerator begin display style 1 over 20 end style over denominator begin display style fraction numerator 20 plus 1 over denominator 400 end fraction end style end fraction space equals fraction numerator begin display style 1 over 20 end style over denominator begin display style 21 over 400 end style end fraction
equals space 1 half cross times 400 over 21 space equals 20 over 21.

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