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Probability

Question
CBSEENMA12033752

Of the students in a college, it is known that 60% reside in hostel and 40% are day scholars (not residing in hostel). Previous year results report that 30% of all students who residue in hostel attain A grade and 20% of day scholars attain A grade in their annua! examination. At the end of the year, one student is chosen at random from the college and he has an A grade, what is the probability that the student is a hostler?

Solution

Let E1, E2, E be the events
E1 : ‘A student is residing in hostel’
E: ‘A student is day scholar’,
E : ‘A student gets A grade,’
Now,             straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space equals space 60 over 100 space equals space 3 over 5 space and space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space equals space 40 over 100 equals space 2 over 5
therefore space space space straight P left parenthesis straight E space vertical line thin space straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space equals space 30 over 100 equals space 3 over 10 space and space straight P left parenthesis straight E space vertical line space straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space equals 20 over 100 space equals 2 over 10
Required probability = straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 space vertical line thin space straight E right parenthesis
                                equals space fraction numerator straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight E vertical line straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis over denominator straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight E vertical line straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space plus space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis thin space straight P left parenthesis straight E vertical line straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis end fraction space space left parenthesis By space Baye apostrophe straight s space Theorem right parenthesis
equals space fraction numerator begin display style 3 over 5 end style cross times begin display style 3 over 10 end style over denominator begin display style 3 over 5 end style cross times begin display style 3 over 10 end style plus begin display style 2 over 5 end style cross times begin display style 2 over 10 end style end fraction space equals fraction numerator 9 over denominator 9 plus 4 end fraction space equals 9 over 13.

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