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Probability

Question
CBSEENMA12033746

There are two bags I and II. Bag I contains 3 white and 2 red balls and Bag II contains 5 white and 4 red balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from bag II.

Solution

Bag  I,                                                  Bag II
Number of white balls  = 3,         Number of white balls = 5
Number of red balls = 2,            Number of red balls  = 4
Total number of balls = 5,         Total number of balls = 9
Let E1 and E2 be the events of the ball being drawn from bag I and bag II respectively and E be the event that the drawn ball is red.
Since both the bags are equally likely to be selected
           therefore space space space space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis space equals space 1 half comma space space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis space equals space 1 half
       straight P left parenthesis straight E left enclose straight E subscript 1 end enclose right parenthesis space equals space Probability space of space drawing space straight a space red space ball space from space bag space straight I space equals space 2 over 5
straight P left parenthesis straight E space left enclose straight E subscript 2 end enclose right parenthesis space equals space Probability space of space drawing space straight a space red space ball space from space bag space II space equals space 4 over 9
P(the red ball is drawn from bag II) = straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 space end subscript left enclose straight E right parenthesis
                                           equals space fraction numerator straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis. space space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 left enclose straight E subscript 2 end enclose right parenthesis over denominator straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 1 right parenthesis. space straight P left parenthesis straight E left enclose straight E subscript 1 end enclose right parenthesis space plus space straight P left parenthesis straight E subscript 2 right parenthesis. space space straight P left parenthesis straight E left enclose straight E subscript 2 end enclose right parenthesis end fraction
equals space fraction numerator begin display style 1 half end style cross times begin display style 4 over 9 end style over denominator begin display style 1 half end style cross times begin display style 2 over 5 end style plus begin display style 1 half end style cross times begin display style 4 over 9 end style end fraction space equals fraction numerator begin display style 2 over 9 end style over denominator begin display style 1 fifth end style plus begin display style 2 over 9 end style end fraction space equals fraction numerator begin display style 2 over 9 end style over denominator begin display style fraction numerator 9 plus 10 over denominator 45 end fraction end style space end fraction equals space fraction numerator begin display style 2 over 9 end style over denominator begin display style 19 over 45 end style end fraction
equals space 2 over 9 cross times 45 over 19 space equals space 10 over 19

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